Will Rae Huang win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will Rae Huang win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Polymarket, closing June 2, 2026. Rae Huang's odds have collapsed from 6¢ to 4¢ over seven days, suggesting deteriorating electoral prospects or shifting trader sentiment ahead of the June 2 election just 46 days away.
Analysis
Rae Huang's odds have collapsed from 6¢ to 4¢ over seven days, suggesting deteriorating electoral prospects or shifting trader sentiment ahead of the June 2 election just 46 days away. The extreme implied yield of 19,076% on the Yes side reflects the massive asymmetry between the tiny 4¢ price and potential payout, though this is offset by extraordinary realized volatility of 1,885% and a concerning cliff risk index of 24, indicating high uncertainty and potential for sharp repricing. With $17.3M in open interest but only $450K in 24-hour volume, liquidity is relatively thin for the position size, creating potential slippage concerns for larger traders seeking to adjust exposure.
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Resolution rules
The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.
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sf trade 0xcc88b1c476a687f4d21abfd17f8ea957b58f2d597542f8bb2351a90fe50dc64d yes 100