Will the Democratic Party win the MA-07 House seat?

The market is pricing in an extremely high probability (94%) that Democrats retain MA-07, with a tight 1¢ spread indicating reasonable liquidity despite zero 24-hour volume and modest $34.7K open interest. The asymmetric implied yields—11.6% for Yes versus 2,849.9% for No—reveal severe mispricing on the Republican side, suggesting the No position is either illiquid or represents speculative tail hedging rather than genuine market conviction. With 201 days to expiry and a neutral regime, the market appears stable but warrants caution given the extreme cliff risk index of 16, indicating potential for sharp repricing if political conditions shift.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade