Will the Democratic Party win the MA-08 House seat?

The market is pricing in an extremely high probability (92%) for Democratic retention of MA-08, which is consistent with the district's strong Democratic lean, though the 92-cent price has held flat over seven days with zero 24-hour volume, suggesting limited recent conviction or liquidity. The asymmetric implied yields—15.9% for Yes versus 2099.6% for No—reflect the lopsided odds, with the No side offering theoretical outsized returns but facing 12 cliff risk points and minimal open interest of just $19,050, indicating this is a thin market vulnerable to sharp repricing if conditions shift. With 200 days to expiration and a tight 1-cent spread, this appears to be a stable consensus market on a heavily favored outcome rather than an active trading venue.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade