Will Troy Jackson win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election?
Prediction markets currently give a 25% probability that Will Troy Jackson win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election?. This contract trades at 25¢ on Polymarket, closing June 9, 2026. Troy Jackson is priced at 25¢ on Polymarket with a negligible 1¢ gap to Kalshi (24¢), suggesting consensus around a 25% win probability despite extreme realized volatility of 334%.
Analysis
Troy Jackson is priced at 25¢ on Polymarket with a negligible 1¢ gap to Kalshi (24¢), suggesting consensus around a 25% win probability despite extreme realized volatility of 334%. The 2123% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the long-shot odds and minimal liquidity ($430 24h volume against $12.3k open interest), creating outsized payoff potential but also elevated cliff risk as the June 9 primary approaches in 52 days. The recent 3¢ price rise over seven days and 0.8 info arrivals per hour suggest active market attention, though the neutral regime and 0.74 volatility ratio indicate uncertainty hasn't crystallized into directional conviction.
Also on kalshi at 24¢(Δ +1¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Maine, scheduled to take place on June 9, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Maine Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Maine Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
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Trade
sf trade 0x9e7946bfbc35a400efea548fe34b649fc96893f80c899ae87cb6b5a650907032 yes 100