Will David Jones win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will David Jones win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Polymarket, closing June 9, 2026. David Jones is priced at a severe discount (5¢) with virtually no trading volume in the past 24 hours, suggesting minimal market confidence or liquidity despite $4.2M open interest.
Analysis
David Jones is priced at a severe discount (5¢) with virtually no trading volume in the past 24 hours, suggesting minimal market confidence or liquidity despite $4.2M open interest. The market has experienced extreme volatility, collapsing from 12¢ seven days ago in a 58% decline, and the astronomical implied yield of 13,096% on the Yes side reflects the illiquidity and wide 7¢ spread rather than genuine probability assessment. With 53 days to expiry and a high cliff risk index of 19, this appears to be a thinly-traded position where the price may not reflect actual primary odds.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Maine, scheduled to take place on June 9, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Maine Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Maine Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
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sf trade 0x9f8bb7bf0e271ed0a67f0145005a5be21d9750f65b35d647c88866251b04d5f4 yes 100