Will Steve Hershey win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will Steve Hershey win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Polymarket, closing June 23, 2026. Steve Hershey is priced at an extremely depressed 3¢ with zero 24-hour volume, suggesting minimal market interest and potential illiquidity despite $18.8k open interest.
Analysis
Steve Hershey is priced at an extremely depressed 3¢ with zero 24-hour volume, suggesting minimal market interest and potential illiquidity despite $18.8k open interest. The implied yield on a "Yes" resolution reaches an astronomical 17,621%, indicating the market is pricing in near-certain failure, though this metric becomes unreliable at such low probabilities. The sharp 50% price decline over seven days (from 6¢ to 3¢) warrants investigation into whether new information emerged about Hershey's candidacy or if this reflects thin-market volatility rather than genuine conviction.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Maryland, scheduled to take place on June 23, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Maryland Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Maryland Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
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Regime
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sf trade 0x2b1e2ed2651c64aebb310db8db003c5ef47a1346508ad7f8d3b14ae5fe3fcccb yes 100