Will the Democrats win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026?

This market exhibits extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $24.6k open interest, suggesting the 95¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus but rather stale positioning. The asymmetric implied yields—9.6% for Yes versus 3,468.9% for No—indicate severe mispricing, with the No side offering a theoretical 1,734% risk-adjusted return that signals either a data artifact or a deeply undervalued hedge. With a Cliff Risk Index of 19 and neutral regime, this appears to be a low-conviction market where the Democratic favorite status in Massachusetts is priced in, but the lack of trading activity and extreme spread in payoff structures warrant caution before treating the 95¢ price as reliable.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Massachusetts gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

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