Will Brian Shortsleeve win the 2026 Massachusetts Governor Republican primary election?
Prediction markets currently give a 40% probability that Will Brian Shortsleeve win the 2026 Massachusetts Governor Republican primary election?. This contract trades at 40¢ on Polymarket, closing September 1, 2026. Brian Shortsleeve's odds have declined 4 cents over seven days to 40¢, creating a notable 3-cent arbitrage gap versus Kalshi (37¢), though the market's near-zero 24-hour volume and modest $16k open interest suggest limited liquidity for capturing this spread.
Analysis
Brian Shortsleeve's odds have declined 4 cents over seven days to 40¢, creating a notable 3-cent arbitrage gap versus Kalshi (37¢), though the market's near-zero 24-hour volume and modest $16k open interest suggest limited liquidity for capturing this spread. The extremely high implied yield of 391% on the Yes side reflects the long time horizon (134 days) and low absolute price, but the 386% realized volatility and 1.86 vol ratio indicate substantial uncertainty around this relatively obscure primary race. With only $0 in daily volume and a 7-cent bid-ask spread, this appears to be a thinly-traded speculative position rather than an efficiently-priced market.
Also on kalshi at 36¢(Δ +4¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Massachusetts, scheduled to take place on September 1, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Massachusetts Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Massachusetts Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xd420ca8aaf8eb6396983001a6aebd048b5e16aa7cac74004c4719263acfc38e9 yes 100