Will the Democrats win the Massachusetts Senate race in 2026?

This market exhibits extreme illiquidity and pricing dysfunction typical of low-volume prediction markets, with zero 24-hour volume despite $23k in open interest and a razor-thin 1¢ spread masking severe imbalance. The 95¢ Yes price reflects Massachusetts' deep Democratic lean, but the astronomical 3,468.9% implied yield on the No side signals virtually no real capital backing that outcome—this is a mispriced tail bet rather than a genuine market consensus. With a Cliff Risk Index of 19 and nearly two years until resolution, the market lacks sufficient liquidity to serve as a reliable probability estimate, though the Democratic favorite status aligns with historical voting patterns in the state.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Massachusetts U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

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