Will the Republican Party win the MD-01 House seat?

The Republican contract is priced at a substantial 81¢ with extremely asymmetric risk-adjusted yields (389% overall), driven by a massive 778% implied yield on the No side despite only 19% probability, suggesting severe mispricing or tail-risk hedging activity. With just $116.22 in 24-hour volume against $14.7M open interest, liquidity is dangerously thin relative to position size, creating potential slippage risk for any meaningful trade. The flat 7-day price action and neutral regime score indicate the market has settled on this Republican-favored outcome, though the 200-day timeframe to the November 2026 election leaves substantial room for political developments to shift the dynamics.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade