Will the Democratic Party win the MD-02 House seat?

This market reflects an extremely lopsided Democratic lean in Maryland's 2nd congressional district, with the 93¢ price implying near-certainty of a Democratic hold. The No side exhibits an extraordinary 2424.5% implied yield, indicating minimal liquidity on the contrarian bet—the $17,851 open interest combined with zero 24-hour volume suggests this is a thin, illiquid market where the extreme yield on the Republican outcome is largely theoretical. With 200 days to expiration and a modest 2¢ spread, the market appears to be pricing in historical Democratic dominance in MD-02 rather than reflecting active trading or genuine uncertainty about the 2026 race.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade