Will Lisa Demuth win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?

Prediction markets currently give a 55% probability that Will Lisa Demuth win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?. This contract trades at 55¢ on Polymarket, closing August 11, 2026.

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55¢
Bid/Ask 54/56¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $191·OI $24,570.109·Closes Aug 11, 2026·111d remaining
0xd25c820d3aee1c735c0fa62c36f4905632ab8c6988653b5b4134593b3209eb7f
7-day price105 snapshots · 2 regime
56¢55¢ current
Apr 852¢Apr 21
Cross-venue

Also on kalshi at 52¢+3¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.88IY 172.1%Close-time delta 2031h

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Minnesota, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Minnesota Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Minnesota Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 268.7%
IY (No) 401.4%
Adj IY 201%
CRI 1
Overround -0.1%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)268.7%
IY (No)401.4%
Adj IY201%
CRI1
Overround-0.1%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
2¢
Computed
4/21/2026, 8:28:49 PM
Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:23:18 PM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0xd25c820d3aee1c735c0fa62c36f4905632ab8c6988653b5b4134593b3209eb7f yes 100

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