Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?

The Republican contract has collapsed 36% over seven days to just 7¢, reflecting strong Democratic positioning in Minnesota despite the extreme 2425% implied yield on the Yes side—a classic sign of deep out-of-the-money pricing with minimal liquidity at $58.63 in 24h volume. The 1153% realized volatility and 2.25 vol ratio suggest this market experiences sharp, episodic moves rather than steady drift, while the modest $34k open interest and elevated cliff risk index (13) indicate thin depth that could amplify price swings around major political events through 2026.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Minnesota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

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