Will Parker Messick win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award?
Prediction markets currently give a 18% probability that Will Parker Messick win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award?. This contract trades at 18¢ on Polymarket, closing November 12, 2026. Parker Messick's odds have collapsed dramatically from 48¢ to 14¢ over seven days, suggesting either a significant injury, poor performance, or market repricing based on new information.
Analysis
Parker Messick's odds have collapsed dramatically from 48¢ to 14¢ over seven days, suggesting either a significant injury, poor performance, or market repricing based on new information. The extreme 1087% implied yield on the Yes side combined with very thin liquidity ($87.42 daily volume) and a wide 19¢ spread indicates this is a highly speculative micro-cap position where the low price may not reflect true probability. With 206 days to expiry and a realized volatility of 377%, this market remains highly unstable and illiquid, making it difficult to establish fair value for a pitcher's award chances this far in advance.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Cy Young Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x720cf4c6448d32730d7e80c39231ab1da2eed6aeb723f2f0991c96e1c4fa8ef9 yes 100