Will Gunnar Henderson win the 2026 American League MVP Award?
Prediction markets currently give a 9% probability that Will Gunnar Henderson win the 2026 American League MVP Award?. This contract trades at 9¢ on Polymarket, closing November 13, 2026. Henderson's odds have nearly doubled over the past week (12¢ to 23¢), yet the market shows zero 24-hour volume despite $726k in open interest and an extreme 44¢ bid-ask spread, suggesting illiquidity and potential stale pricing.
Analysis
Henderson's odds have nearly doubled over the past week (12¢ to 23¢), yet the market shows zero 24-hour volume despite $726k in open interest and an extreme 44¢ bid-ask spread, suggesting illiquidity and potential stale pricing. The 580% implied yield on the yes side combined with 1868% realized volatility and a 5.51 vol ratio indicates this is a highly speculative position with significant pricing uncertainty rather than a fundamentally-driven market. With 211 days to expiration and a neutral regime, traders should be cautious of the wide spread and verify this price against other sportsbooks before entering a position.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Most Valuable Player Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xc7170861b70674da768ce936f4847f1be99fd39333102d39e6490320aa501886 yes 100