Will New York Mets win the 2026 National League Championship Series?

The Mets' 10-cent price reflects a 10% playoff probability with an extraordinarily high 1653% implied yield on the yes side, though this extreme figure is distorted by the minimal price floor and should be interpreted cautiously. Zero 24-hour volume combined with $22,163 open interest and a 3-cent spread suggests illiquid market conditions where the quoted price may not reflect true consensus, particularly given the high cliff risk index of 9 indicating significant tail risk. The market has declined 1 cent over seven days and won't resolve for 199 days, leaving substantial time for the Mets' playoff odds to shift materially based on roster moves and mid-season performance.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 National League Championship Series. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 National League Championship Series per the rules of the MLB (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 National League Championship Series is cancelled, postponed after November 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from Major League Baseball (https://www.mlb.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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