Will Freddy Peralta win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will Freddy Peralta win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Polymarket, closing November 12, 2026. Freddy Peralta's Cy Young odds have collapsed from 7¢ to 4¢ over seven days, reflecting either deteriorating health outlook or shifting market sentiment away from the young pitcher despite 209 days until resolution.
Analysis
Freddy Peralta's Cy Young odds have collapsed from 7¢ to 4¢ over seven days, reflecting either deteriorating health outlook or shifting market sentiment away from the young pitcher despite 209 days until resolution. The extreme 4193% implied yield on the yes side combined with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 7¢ spread suggests this is an illiquid, potentially stale market where the 4¢ price may not reflect genuine consensus. The astronomical realized volatility of 7552% and cliff risk index of 24 indicate this market exhibits unstable pricing dynamics typical of low-liquidity prediction markets with sparse trading activity.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 National League Cy Young Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Trade
sf trade 0x1c0408d969ca7245b8e8d671ba95e0e7062375ae185a124d1384fe5aa2608adb yes 100