Will Spencer Strider win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will Spencer Strider win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Polymarket, closing November 12, 2026. Spencer Strider's Cy Young odds have risen 50% over the past week to 9¢, though the market remains extremely illiquid with zero 24-hour volume and only $1,523 open interest, making the 17¢ spread unreliable for serious positioning.
Analysis
Spencer Strider's Cy Young odds have risen 50% over the past week to 9¢, though the market remains extremely illiquid with zero 24-hour volume and only $1,523 open interest, making the 17¢ spread unreliable for serious positioning. The astronomical 1760% implied yield on the yes side reflects the market's severe illiquidity rather than genuine edge, while the 2784% realized volatility and 3.87 vol ratio indicate extreme price instability typical of thin prediction markets. With 210 days to expiration and a 10 Cliff Risk Index, this contract carries substantial execution risk and should be approached cautiously given the minimal trading activity.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 National League Cy Young Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Trade
sf trade 0x860f7c3bc7b3e837273ce43092fbb04158078d021963b62fdb1034fbbecf67ab yes 100