Will Zack Wheeler win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $1.56M open interest, creating a 12¢ spread and an implausibly high 2,727% implied yield on the yes side that reflects pricing dysfunction rather than genuine opportunity. Zack Wheeler's 6¢ price implies only a 6% win probability for the 2026 Cy Young, which seems reasonable for a single pitcher among dozens of eligible competitors, but the 9.50 volatility ratio and 16 cliff risk index suggest the market has experienced sharp repricing events that may not reflect fundamental information. With 210 days to expiration and a neutral regime, this appears to be a thinly-traded niche market where the extreme yield metrics are artifacts of low liquidity rather than indicators of mispricing.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 National League Cy Young Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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