Will Kyle Schwarber win the 2026 National League Hank Aaron Award?
Prediction markets currently give a 7% probability that Will Kyle Schwarber win the 2026 National League Hank Aaron Award?. This contract trades at 7¢ on Polymarket, closing November 13, 2026. Kyle Schwarber's odds have compressed from 8¢ to 6¢ over seven days, but the market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and an 11¢ bid-ask spread despite $1.2M open interest, suggesting the positions are largely stale.
Analysis
Kyle Schwarber's odds have compressed from 8¢ to 6¢ over seven days, but the market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and an 11¢ bid-ask spread despite $1.2M open interest, suggesting the positions are largely stale. A notable 300% cross-venue gap exists versus Kalshi's 3¢ price, indicating potential arbitrage opportunity or data staleness on one platform. The astronomical 2758% implied yield on "Yes" reflects the tiny price floor rather than genuine edge, and with 207 days to expiry, this remains a speculative long-shot bet on Schwarber's 2026 NL MVP-caliber performance.
Also on kalshi at 3¢(Δ +4¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 National League Hank Aaron Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xd2e63f6807c6c6c71e99c3abc2519f0994e0afee026dbde2638eff7b773b9ad6 yes 100