Will Juan Soto win the 2026 National League MVP Award?
Prediction markets currently give a 7% probability that Will Juan Soto win the 2026 National League MVP Award?. This contract trades at 7¢ on Polymarket, closing November 13, 2026. Juan Soto's MVP odds have surged 67% over seven days (12¢ to 20¢), yet the market shows extreme illiquidity with only $16k in 24-hour volume against $848k open interest and a punishing 32¢ spread.
Analysis
Juan Soto's MVP odds have surged 67% over seven days (12¢ to 20¢), yet the market shows extreme illiquidity with only $16k in 24-hour volume against $848k open interest and a punishing 32¢ spread. The 652% implied yield on the Yes side combined with 1993% realized volatility and a 4.28 vol ratio suggests this is a highly speculative position with significant cliff risk (4/10), likely driven by recent performance or roster news rather than fundamental repricing.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 National League Most Valuable Player Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Trade
sf trade 0xd93dbd108dd5982f8a594f35d6fb5d627bbecb8be5df58705471f49a0c7c88ae yes 100