Will Kevin Cash win the 2026 AL Manager of the Year?
Prediction markets currently give a 12% probability that Will Kevin Cash win the 2026 AL Manager of the Year?. This contract trades at 12¢ on Polymarket, closing December 19, 2026. Kevin Cash's 2026 AL Manager of the Year odds have surged 154% over seven days from 13¢ to 33¢, yet the market shows critical illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a severe 57¢ bid-ask spread that inflates the yes-side implied yield to 300.3%.
Analysis
Kevin Cash's 2026 AL Manager of the Year odds have surged 154% over seven days from 13¢ to 33¢, yet the market shows critical illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a severe 57¢ bid-ask spread that inflates the yes-side implied yield to 300.3%. The extreme realized volatility of 3,884% and vol ratio of 12.63 suggest this thin $1.2M open interest market is highly susceptible to price manipulation or sentiment swings rather than fundamental information, particularly given the neutral regime and low info arrival rate of 1.0/hour with nearly eight months until resolution.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the manager who wins the 2026 American League Manager of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the manager whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x0e4659fac05145bf4d7d80de822b61891c254d7bba4d78bfe65048a8be6e9f1b yes 100