Will Carlos Lagrange win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $1.1M open interest, creating a concerning 77¢ spread and inflated 231% implied yield on the Yes side that likely reflects pricing inefficiency rather than true probability. The 39¢ price has declined 5¢ over seven days while realized volatility sits at an extraordinary 1203%, suggesting either significant uncertainty about Lagrange's prospects or sparse, volatile trading activity. With 247 days to expiry and an information arrival rate of 4.0 events per hour, this market appears to be a low-liquidity trap where the wide bid-ask spread and lack of recent trades make execution difficult despite the substantial open interest.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Rookie of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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