Will Kevin McGonigle win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $1,315 open interest, making the 30¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading. The 345% implied yield on the "Yes" side is artificially inflated due to low liquidity and the wide 27¢ bid-ask spread, while the 3,238% realized volatility and 17.46 vol ratio indicate this contract has experienced wild price swings despite minimal trading activity. With 247 days to expiry and McGonigle still early in his MLB career trajectory, this appears to be a speculative micro-market where pricing may not reflect true probability.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Rookie of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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