Will Max Clark win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?

This market displays extreme illiquidity and volatility despite 247 days to expiration, with zero 24-hour volume and a massive 20¢ spread on just $1.3K open interest. The 10¢ price has collapsed 50% over seven days, driving an unsustainable 1331% implied yield on the Yes side, while realized volatility of 8977% and a cliff risk index of 9 suggest this contract is highly unstable and potentially mispriced due to thin order books rather than fundamental reassessment of Clark's rookie prospects. The 1.6 information arrivals per hour indicate active discussion, but the neutral regime and extreme vol ratio (56.68) suggest this is a speculative micro-market where small trades can swing prices dramatically rather than a reliable probability estimate.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Rookie of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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