Will Travis Bazzana win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?
Prediction markets currently give a 11% probability that Will Travis Bazzana win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?. This contract trades at 11¢ on Polymarket, closing December 19, 2026. Travis Bazzana's odds have collapsed 36% over seven days (from 28¢ to 18¢), suggesting deteriorating performance or injury concerns during his rookie season, though the extreme 674% implied yield on the "Yes" side indicates severe illiquidity with only $1.7K open interest and zero 24-hour volume.
Analysis
Travis Bazzana's odds have collapsed 36% over seven days (from 28¢ to 18¢), suggesting deteriorating performance or injury concerns during his rookie season, though the extreme 674% implied yield on the "Yes" side indicates severe illiquidity with only $1.7K open interest and zero 24-hour volume. The massive 35¢ bid-ask spread and realized volatility of 6,375% reflect highly unreliable pricing, making this market unsuitable for serious trading despite 247 days until resolution.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Rookie of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x86b0c4565d55389652505bf1f560cd945e3513ab75ed06a014b658be4ece1f73 yes 100