Will Trey Yesavage win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?

This market shows extreme illiquidity and volatility despite modest open interest of $4,033.83, with zero 24-hour volume and an 18¢ spread indicating difficulty executing trades. The 9% price has collapsed 40% over seven days (from 15¢), yet the asymmetric implied yields (1,496% for Yes vs. 14.6% for No) and realized volatility of 9,855% suggest the market may be mispriced or subject to thin-book distortions rather than genuine conviction about Yesavage's rookie prospects. With 247 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 10, this appears to be a speculative position in an illiquid corner of the market rather than a reliable probability estimate.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Rookie of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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