Will Zack Wheeler win the 2026 NL Comeback Player of the Year award?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $1.29M open interest, and the price has collapsed 55% over seven days from 45¢ to 20¢, suggesting significant negative information arrival about Wheeler's injury recovery prospects or competing candidates. The 592% implied yield on the Yes side combined with a realized volatility of 2,766% and 18.19 vol ratio indicates wild price swings typical of thin, speculative markets where small trades move prices dramatically. With 247 days until expiry and a neutral regime, this appears to be a dead market where the initial hype around Wheeler has faded, making any position highly risky given the wide 10¢ spread and potential for further repricing as the 2026 season approaches.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 National League Comeback Player of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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