Will Craig Stammen win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $1.4M open interest and a massive 65¢ bid-ask spread, suggesting the quoted 33¢ price may not reflect true market consensus. The 300% implied yield on the Yes side is artificially inflated by the wide spread and lack of trading activity, while the realized volatility of 4,119% indicates this is a highly speculative, thinly-traded position. With 247 days to expiration and a neutral regime, traders should be cautious about relying on this price as meaningful signal—the market appears essentially frozen rather than efficiently priced.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the manager who wins the 2026 National League Manager of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the manager whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

Regime

Trade