Will Oliver Marmol win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?

This market displays extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a massive 54¢ spread despite modest $1,593 open interest, suggesting minimal trading activity and potentially stale pricing. The 27¢ price implies only a 27% probability for Marmol, yet the asymmetric implied yields (400% for Yes versus 55% for No) and extraordinarily high realized volatility of 3,814% indicate significant pricing instability and uncertainty about fair value. With 247 days to expiry and a neutral regime, this appears to be a thin, speculative market where the extreme yield differential may reflect either genuine conviction about Marmol's slim chances or simply the illiquidity premium typical of low-volume prediction markets.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the manager who wins the 2026 National League Manager of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the manager whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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