Will Tony Vitello win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a massive 86¢ bid-ask spread, suggesting the 43¢ price may not reflect true consensus valuation. The 196% implied yield on the yes side is exceptionally high relative to the 247-day time horizon, likely driven by the thin order book rather than genuine market conviction about Vitello's managerial prospects. The 1317% realized volatility and 7.65 vol ratio indicate highly erratic pricing behavior, making this an unreliable indicator of actual probability until meaningful liquidity develops.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the manager who wins the 2026 National League Manager of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the manager whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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