Will Justin Crawford win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will Justin Crawford win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Polymarket, closing December 19, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity and volatility despite 247 days to expiration, with zero 24-hour volume and a massive 11¢ spread on just $2,007.96 open interest.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity and volatility despite 247 days to expiration, with zero 24-hour volume and a massive 11¢ spread on just $2,007.96 open interest. The price has collapsed 65% over seven days (from 17¢ to 6¢), generating a realized volatility of 14,817% and an absurd 2,317% implied yield on the Yes side—metrics that reflect thin order books rather than genuine probability assessment. The high cliff risk index (16) and information arrival rate (1.7/h) suggest this illiquid market is vulnerable to sudden repricing as new information about Crawford's 2026 prospects emerges.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 National League Rookie of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Trade
sf trade 0x114ebd247d68f4c6eeecfedc7f3d97e54fab53479e54029ffeb2db8282ec3c1a yes 100