Will Owen Caissie win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award?
Prediction markets currently give a 6% probability that Will Owen Caissie win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award?. This contract trades at 6¢ on Polymarket, closing December 19, 2026. Owen Caissie's ROTY odds have compressed sharply from 17¢ to 13¢ over the past week, suggesting deteriorating sentiment or increased competition in the rookie class, though the $0 24-hour volume indicates minimal recent trading activity.
Analysis
Owen Caissie's ROTY odds have compressed sharply from 17¢ to 13¢ over the past week, suggesting deteriorating sentiment or increased competition in the rookie class, though the $0 24-hour volume indicates minimal recent trading activity. The extreme 989.9% implied yield on the yes side paired with a massive 7,845% realized volatility and 29.38 vol ratio signals severe illiquidity and pricing instability rather than genuine opportunity—the $1,747.81 open interest and 25¢ spread reflect a thin, speculative market. With 247 days to expiry and a neutral regime, this contract appears more suitable for long-term baseball bettors comfortable with execution risk than active traders.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 National League Rookie of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x412e19a4dc742357b60c1104c9c6d2f91df28430f766fc9b562c696d2a9cb8b3 yes 100