Will the Democratic Party win the MN-04 House seat?

This market reflects extremely high confidence in Democratic retention of Minnesota's 4th district, with the Yes side priced at 92¢ implying a 92% win probability, though the zero 24-hour volume and modest $17.2K open interest suggest minimal liquidity for such a lopsided contract. The implied yield asymmetry is striking—while the Democratic position offers only 15.9% annualized return, the Republican No side shows a theoretical 2099% yield, indicating the market has essentially priced out a GOP flip despite 200 days remaining until the November 2026 election. The moderate 2¢ spread and neutral regime score suggest this pricing is relatively stable, though the 12 Cliff Risk Index warrants caution given the illiquidity and potential for late-campaign shifts in what is historically a safe Democratic seat.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

Trade