Will the Republican Party win the MN-04 House seat?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 1839% annualized yield on the Yes side despite zero 24-hour volume and only $30k open interest, suggesting the 9¢ price reflects illiquidity rather than genuine conviction that Republicans have just a 9% chance in MN-04. The neutral regime score and flat 7-day price action indicate this is a stale market lacking active price discovery, with the massive yield differential between Yes (1839%) and No (18%) typical of thin, low-confidence pricing on prediction markets. With 201 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 10, traders should be cautious about the reliability of this quote as a true probability estimate.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade