Will the Democratic Party win the MN-06 House seat?

This market shows extremely asymmetric risk-adjusted returns (561% implied yield) with Democrats priced at just 14¢, suggesting either substantial undervaluation or significant structural bearishness toward Democratic prospects in this traditionally Republican district. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $14.3M open interest indicates illiquidity despite notable size, creating potential execution challenges for traders wanting to build positions at these prices. With 200 days to expiration and a moderate cliff risk index of 6, the market has adequate time for repricing, though the 1¢ spread is relatively tight given the low absolute price level.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade