Will the Democratic Party win the MN-07 House seat?

This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 1,642.7% implied yield on the "Yes" side versus just 20.3% on the "No" side, suggesting the 10¢ price significantly undervalues Democratic chances in MN-07 relative to historical competitiveness in this district. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $18,158 open interest and a high Cliff Risk Index of 9 indicates illiquidity and potential mispricing, with the thin 1¢ spread offering limited depth for meaningful position entry. With 200 days to expiration, there's substantial time for price discovery, but the current odds appear to reflect either a structural Republican lean in the district or thin market participation rather than fundamental conviction about the 2026 race.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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