Will the Republican Party win the MN-07 House seat?

The market is pricing in an extremely lopsided Republican advantage at 90¢, yet shows zero 24-hour volume despite $25k open interest, suggesting this may be a stale or illiquid position. The asymmetric implied yields—20.2% for Yes versus 1,637% for No—reveal severe mispricing, with the No side offering outsized returns that likely reflect the market's extreme confidence rather than genuine probability. With 201 days to expiry and a high cliff risk index of 9, this contract carries significant tail risk and should be treated cautiously given the illiquidity and potential for sharp repricing as the election approaches.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade