Will the Democratic Party win the MO-02 House seat?

This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 727.6% implied yield on the Yes side versus 45.5% on the No side, suggesting the 20¢ price may significantly undervalue Democratic chances in MO-02 or reflect very low conviction betting. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $18,775 open interest and a tight 1¢ spread indicates illiquidity despite the long 201-day timeframe, making this a potentially mispriced but difficult-to-trade position. The elevated Cliff Risk Index of 4 warrants caution, as late-breaking political developments in this Missouri district could trigger sharp repricing closer to the November 2026 election.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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