Will the Republican Party win the MO-02 House seat?

This market shows extremely illiquid conditions with zero 24-hour volume despite $20,589 in open interest, suggesting traders are holding positions but few new participants are entering. The 79¢ price implies a strong Republican lean in Missouri's 2nd district, though the wildly asymmetric implied yields (48.4% for Yes vs. 684.3% for No) reflect the thin liquidity and indicate the No side is severely underpriced relative to risk. With 201 days until the November 2026 election and a neutral regime score, this market may see significant repricing once campaign dynamics clarify or liquidity improves.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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