Will the Republican Party win the MO-03 House seat?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $25k open interest, suggesting the 91¢ price may not reflect true market consensus and could be vulnerable to sharp repricing on any significant trading activity. The massive 1839% implied yield on the "No" side is a classic sign of illiquid tail-risk pricing—a $100 bet on Republican loss would return $1,939, but such positions are likely impossible to execute at these quoted prices. With 201 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, this appears to be a thinly-traded market where the Republican lean reflects Missouri's partisan lean rather than genuine price discovery.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade