Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan out as President of the United Arab Emirates by June 30, 2026?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 4¢ price implying only 4% probability of the UAE President stepping down within 75 days, yet the Yes side offers an astronomical 11,716.7% annualized yield—a red flag indicating either severe illiquidity or structural market dysfunction. The $0 24-hour volume combined with $14.3M open interest and a 2¢ spread suggests the market is essentially frozen with no recent price discovery, making the 5¢-to-4¢ weekly decline potentially stale data. Given the neutral regime score and approaching June 2026 expiry, this appears to be a low-conviction, low-liquidity market where the extreme yield reflects the difficulty of exit rather than genuine arbitrage opportunity.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan ceases to be President of the United Arab Emirates for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan and the government of the United Arab Emirates; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

Regime

Trade