Will the Republican Party win the MS-01 House seat?

The Republican contract is pricing MS-01 as heavily favored at 93¢, reflecting the district's traditional Republican lean, though the 13.7% annualized yield on the Yes side suggests modest compensation for the two-year lockup. The extreme 2416.8% implied yield on the No position reveals severe illiquidity on the Democratic side with only $3,460 in 24-hour volume across $31,972 in open interest, creating a classic thin-market dynamic where contrarian bets face punishing odds. The tight 1¢ spread and neutral regime score indicate stable pricing despite the lopsided probability, though the 13 Cliff Risk Index warrants caution given potential late-cycle volatility before the November 2026 resolution.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade