Will the Democratic Party win the MS-03 House seat?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $17.5k open interest, suggesting the 5¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus. The Democratic 3456% implied yield is a classic sign of mispricing in thin markets—MS-03 is a heavily Republican district, but this yield is unrealistically high given the 201-day timeframe and neutral regime conditions. The sharp 7-cent price drop over seven days combined with zero spread indicates potential stale pricing rather than active trading.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade