Will the Republican Party win the MS-04 House seat?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $17,985 in open interest, suggesting the 93¢ price reflects stale information rather than active consensus. The massive 2425.6% implied yield on the "No" side is a classic sign of minimal liquidity on the short end—traders would need only a tiny price movement to generate outsized returns, indicating the market is effectively one-sided. With 200 days until resolution and a neutral regime score, this appears to be a low-conviction Republican lean in MS-04 rather than a high-confidence prediction, warranting caution about the 93% implied probability's reliability.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade