Will the Republican Party win the MT-01 House seat?

The Republican contract at 56¢ reflects a modest GOP lean in Montana's 1st district, though the exceptionally high implied yields (144% for Yes, 234% for No) suggest significant uncertainty despite 199 days to expiration. With only $156 in 24-hour volume against $14.5M open interest, liquidity is notably thin relative to position size, creating potential slippage concerns for larger traders. The 3-cent price rise over seven days and neutral regime score indicate the market is still in discovery phase, with an information arrival rate of 0.6 events per hour suggesting material developments could shift pricing substantially before the November 2026 election.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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