Will the Democratic Party win the NC-01 House seat?

The Democratic probability in NC-01 has collapsed 56% over seven days (from 42¢ to 27¢), suggesting significant adverse information or shifting fundamentals in this Republican-leaning district. The 52¢ spread and zero 24-hour volume indicate severe illiquidity despite $185k open interest, making the 497% implied yield on the Yes side potentially misleading given execution risk. With 199 days to expiry and a realized volatility of 2226%, this market appears to be pricing in substantial uncertainty, though the extreme yield and low price suggest Democratic prospects are genuinely weak in NC-01.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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