Will the Democratic Party win the NC-08 House seat?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $25,473 in open interest, suggesting the 13¢ price may not reflect true market consensus. The 1217% implied yield on the Yes side is unusually high and likely reflects the low price floor rather than genuine opportunity, while the 7-point cliff risk index indicates significant tail risk around resolution. With 201 days to expiry and NC-08 being a traditionally Republican district, the 13% Democratic probability appears reasonable, though the stagnant price and dead volume suggest limited trader confidence in either direction.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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