Will the Republican Party win the NC-08 House seat?

This market shows extreme asymmetric risk with a massive 1,221% implied yield on the "No" side versus just 27.3% on the "Yes" side, suggesting the 87¢ price may be overconfident in Republican retention despite NC-08's historical competitiveness. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $14.1M open interest and a tight 1¢ spread indicates illiquidity relative to position size, creating potential slippage concerns for larger traders. With 200 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, the cliff risk index of 7 warrants caution—this market could experience sharp repricing as we approach the November 2026 election.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade