Will the Democratic Party win the NC-09 House seat?

The Democratic contract is pricing NC-09 as a heavily Republican-favored seat at just 16¢, implying a 84% Republican win probability, yet shows an extraordinarily high implied yield of 955% for Yes positions despite zero 24-hour volume and only $21,317 in open interest. The 3-cent price appreciation over seven days combined with the massive yield asymmetry and moderate cliff risk (5/10) suggests either thin liquidity distorting the odds or genuine market uncertainty about Democratic viability in this North Carolina district, though the lack of recent trading volume makes this pricing difficult to validate as the market has over 200 days until resolution.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade